Who Will Take Home Oscar? I Predict It Will Not Be Me

It's about time I pick my winners in the top categories, and who knows, I may even make a few predictions in the categories I know nothing about. I'd like to preface this by saying that due to my health, I haven't been able to see all the films as I typically do before Oscar Sunday (one of the five days of the year I refuse to work). In fact, the only film I've seen is The Dark Knight, so I'll be relying on my past good fortune of guessing who gets the prize.

Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
And the Oscar (probably) goes to...Mickey Rourke
This one is a tough call, as Penn and Pitt have also been widely acknowledged for their performaces in their title roles. Hollywood loves a comeback, probably because it gives the washed-up ones hope. With all the Slumdog Millionaire hype, this seems to be a year for the dark horse, which Rourke was until he started racking up all those statues at other ceremonies. Still, I'd be OK with a Pitt upset. Playing a character who looks old and acts young takes some mad skills, and the Academy should recognize him one of these years. Which brings me to...

Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winselt, The Reader
And the Oscar (better) go to...Kate Winslet
As soon as I saw previews for Rachel Getting Married, I knew Hathaway would get a nod. Winslet is the youngest actress to have racked up as many nods as she has, and the Academy needs to stop teasing her and just give her the statue already. The only thing that could spoil her chances...Streep. I say this because Winslet has already won for The Reader, but those wins were in the Supporting Actress category, and Streep picked up an Actor for Doubt.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Do I really need to list the nominees here?
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
And the Oscar (definitely) goes to...Heath Ledger
I would bet everything I own on Ledger winning, and if he doesn't, there will be rioting in the streets. His parents are expected to accept on his behalf, and if that damn orchestra tries to play them off, I hope someone kicks the conductor's ass. I just hope they stop overusing the word "dude" when they announce Downey Jr. as a nominee.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marissa Tomei, The Wrestler
And the Oscar goes to...Penelope Cruz
Cruz has been overlooked before, but she always has the ability to appear not just as a beautiful woman but as a realistic character, embodying both good and bad qualities. It's a little risky putting up two actresses for Doubt, but that didn't keep Catherine Zeta-Jones from besting the competition, including fellow Chicago nominee Queen Laifah. Still, I'm banking on Cruz.

Animated Feature Film
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
And the Oscar goes to...Wall-E

Directing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
And the Oscar goes to...Slumdog Millionaire
Am I the only one tired of hearing about this film? I think it will win, but I'm holding out silent hope for a Bejamin Button upset in this and the Best Picture categories. I was thrilled when Crash won a few years ago. Still, Slumdog won the DGA Award, which almost always means Oscar will follow.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
And the Oscar (despite my wishes) goes to...Slumdog Millionaire
I'm still hoping for a Benjamin Button upset, though, and I don't think it's completely out of the question.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
And the Oscar goes to...Slumdog Millionaire
I think this is pretty much locked, and I'm OK with that. It would have to be a damn good screenplay to win all those awards, so I'm sticking by Slumdog for this one.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E
And the Oscar (after much deliberation) goes to...In Bruges
If there's a wild card category this year, this one is it. I'm going with In Bruges, as this is one of the few categories that consistently recognizes comedy. Taking into account last year's winner, Juno, I think it's safe to bet on one with less hype. However, Happy-Go-Lucky and Wall-E have received their share of honors, and Milk is the only one nominated for Best Picture. Still, I'm going with In Bruges, which will either make me brilliantly correct or embarassingly wrong.

Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
And the Oscar goes to...The Duchess
Though The Dark Knight is certainly deserving, the Academy loves to reward period pieces in this category, as well as in Costume Design.

Cinematography
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
And the Oscar goes to...The Dark Knight
I'm not just picking it because it's the only one I've seen, but typically movies with the kind of sequences like this film fare well in this category. Benjamin Button could take this one away, but I think The Dark Knight is more likely to get the prize.

Costume Design
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road
And the Oscar goes to...The Duchess
This one will be a close call, and the most likely spoilers are Australia and Revolutionary Road. However, big uncomfortable dresses usually have good odds at winning the statue, so I'm picking The Duchess.

Documentary Feature
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water
And the Oscar goes to...Man on Wire
I saw clips from this on The Colbert Report, and it is nothing short of impressive. It's already been honored at this year's BAFTAs.

Documentary Short
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness - from the Balcony of Room 306
And the Oscar goes to...The Conscience of Nhem En
Reading synopses of these films, they all seem Oscar-worthy. I had a tough time deciding between this one, The Witness and Smile Pinki, but of all of these, The Conscience of Nhem En is the one I'd most like to watch, and that seems as good a reason as any.

Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
And the Oscar goes to...The Dark Knight
Films with action sequences usually do well here, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if Slumdog pulls this one off, too.

Foreign Language Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Revanche (Austria)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
And the Oscar (might) go to...The Baader Meinhof Complex
I've read synopses of these, and I'm really just making a somewhat-educated guess. I'm not betting on Israel because it's animated, but any of these films sound intriguing. Again, I'm going with what I'd like to see.

Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
And the Oscar goes to...The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
This was a hard one, but using one actor to play so many different ages should be rewarded. I still think this one is a toss-up, but I'm leaning toward Benjamin Button, and hopefully the Academy will, too.

Music (Score)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
And the Oscar goes to...Slumdog Millionaire
As much as I'd like to go for Benjamin Button, judging by the clips I've seen, Slumdog has less dialogue, making it's score a more vital part of the film. This is the same reason I picked Brokeback Mountain to win this category. The score takes you through the movie, filling in the quiet gaps. Though I haven't seen these films, Slumdog's score accomplished this in the few scenes I've watched.

Music (Song)
"Down to Earth" Wall-E
"Jai Ho" Slumdog Millionaire
"O Sava" Slumdog Millionaire
And the Oscar goes to...Wall-E
Slumdog has a risk of splitting it's vote, but it could still pull this off. However, animated films are usually front-runners in the song category, so I'm going with Wall-E

Short Film (Animated)
La Maison En Petits Cubes
Lavatory-Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up
And the Oscar goes to...Presto
First, who named these films? I'm just guessing here, going with the film with the cute rabbit. It sounds like it would be entertaining, though that lavatory one just might be weird enough to win.

Short Film (Live Action)
Auf Der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)
And the Oscar goes to...Spielzeugland
I was going to go with Manon because of the dying girl, but I opted for the hard-to-pronounce Spielzeugland, and not just because I want to see the presenter stumble over the words. It's about a German boy who thinks his Jewish neighbors are going to Toyland. I'm sure it's heart-breaking and Oscar-worthy.

Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted
And the Oscar goes to...The Dark Knight
I debated between this, Wall-E and Iron Man, but I'm putting faith in the Batman. It could go to any of these nominees, really.

Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted
And the Oscar goes to...Wall-E
I can't believe I'm picking this, but I think it has a shot at a sound award. It's my dark horse pick of the night.

Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
And the Oscar goes to...The Dark Knight
Iron Man definitely has a shot at this one, but The Dark Knight had some great effects, and the camera-work was superb.

Well, those are my picks. It won't be long until we know the actual results, and you can bet on a blog update then.